Prediction, Preview, and Odds
#4963 Boston Red Sox vs.
#4964 Texas Rangers
Wednesday, September 20, 2023 at 2:05pm EDT
Written by Chris King

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A pair of American League teams trying to make up ground in the playoff picture close an early week series on the diamond down in the Lone Star State. The Boston Red Sox are on the road as they finish up a three-game set with the Texas Rangers Wednesday afternoon. In the opening game of the series Monday night, Boston rallied late to earn a 4-2 victory, drawing first blood in the set. Will the Red Sox earn another critical win on getaway day or can the Rangers stop their freefall and get on track as the regular season winds down? This article was published prior to the middle game of the series at Globe Life Field Tuesday night.

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Boston Red Sox Looking to Climb in AL Playoff Chase

Boston had dropped four straight and six of their previous seven before rallying to take the opening game of this series Monday night. The Red Sox entered Tuesday 75-76 and in the basement of the AL East, 19.5 games behind the Orioles for the top spot. They were 7.5 games behind the Rangers and Mariners, who were tied for the final wild card spot, with 11 games to play. On Monday night, Boston got two hits each from Rafael Devers (run), Bobby Dalbec (run) and Luis Urias (run, RBI) in the contest. Kutter Crawford didn’t factor in the decision as he threw six innings, allowing two runs on four hits with no walks and seven strikeouts. Josh Winckowski (4-2) earned the win as he threw a scoreless inning, allowing no hits with two walks and three strikeouts. Chris Martin worked a scoreless ninth, allowing one hit with no walks and two strikeouts, for his second save.

Brayan Bello is on the mound for the Red Sox as he makes his 27th start of the season in this contest. He is 12-9 with a 3.71 ERA, a 1.264 WHIP, 39 walks and 127 strikeouts over 148 innings of work on the year. Bello took the loss in his last start, which came on the road against the Blue Jays Friday. He threw six innings, allowing three runs on four hits with one walk and 10 strikeouts in a 3-0 Boston defeat. In his last three starts, Bello is 2-1 with a 4.76 ERA, a 1.12 WHIP, three walks and 21 strikeouts over 17 innings of work. Bello makes his third career start against the Rangers in this contest. He is 2-0 with a 1.38 ERA a 0.923 WHIP, one walk and eight strikeouts over 13 innings of work against them. Bello, in his 40th career major league appearance and 38th start, pitches at Globe Life Field for the first time in this contest.

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Texas Rangers Hoping to Finish Season Strong

Texas suffered a fourth straight loss and fell to 10-20 since August 16 as they wilted late against the Red Sox in the opening game of this series. The Rangers entered Tuesday 82-68 and stood tied for second in the AL West with Seattle, 1.5 games behind the Astros for the top spot. Texas was tied with Seattle for the final wild card spot in the AL playoff picture. On Monday night, Texas finished with five hits in the game with Marcus Semien (run, two RBI) the lone player with two. Semien hit his 25th homer of the season for the Rangers in a losing effort. Jordan Montgomery didn’t factor in the decision as he threw seven innings, allowing one run on five hits with no walks and eight strikeouts. Will Smith (2-7) took the loss as he allowed three runs on two hits with two walks and one strikeout in one-third of an inning of relief.

Jon Gray takes the ball for Texas as he makes his 28th start of the season in this contest. He comes in 8-8 with a 4.05 ERA, a 1.295 WHIP, 53 walks and 134 strikeouts over 149 innings of work on the season. Gray took the loss in his last start, which came Friday on the road against the Guardians. He threw 3.2 innings, allowing three runs on seven hits with two walks and three strikeouts in a game the Rangers went on to lose 12-3. In his last three starts, Gray is 0-1 with a 7.15 ERA, a 2.29 WHIP, eight walks and 14 strikeouts over 11.1 innings of work. Gray makes his third career start against the Red Sox in this contest. He comes in 1-1 with a 3.38 ERA, a 1.50 WHIP, six walks and eight strikeouts over 13.1 innings of work against them. Gray is 7-5 with a 3.98 ERA, a 1.255 WHIP, 40 walks and 121 strikeouts over 124.1 innings in 23 career starts at Globe Life Field.

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Both teams have had their share of struggles of late, which is why they are where they sit in the AL playoff picture. The Red Sox fired Chaim Bloom, apparently lobbing the majority of the blame for the team’s struggles at his feet. Bello has pitched well this season in his first full campaign as a starting pitcher in the majors, and he has had the Rangers’ number in his two starts against them. Texas has been tough at home and they saw both Josh Jung along with Adolis Garcia return to bolster their lineup Monday night. The problem for the Rangers is pitching: Gray has struggled in his last few starts while the bullpen imploded again on Monday night. That’s been an ongoing issue for Texas and could prove to be the reason why they miss the playoffs should that come to fruition. Give the edge to the Red Sox here as Bello turns in another solid outing.

Prediction: Boston Red Sox +126
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Boston has seen the over post a 79-69-3 record in their 151 games entering Tuesday’s action. The Red Sox are ninth in runs per game as they average 4.90 runs per contest this season and that drops down to 4.59 runs per game away from Fenway Park. Boston has an average total of 9.71 runs per game on the year and that falls to 9.03 runs per game on the road this season. Texas has seen the over post a 77-63-10 mark in their 150 games in relation to the total entering Tuesday. The Rangers are third in the majors in runs per game with 5.47 runs per contest and that climbs to an average of 5.83 runs per game at home. Texas has posted an average total of 9.94 runs per game this season, which climbs up to 10.58 runs per game as the home team. We saw only six runs in the opening game of this series and with two decent pitchers on the mound, this game likely ends up short of the total, barring a total collapse by the relief corps.

Prediction: Under 9
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Written By Chris King , "Chris King"

Chris King has been immersed in the world of professional and collegiate sports for more than three decades. Whether it's playing pickup games or being involved in organized sports to being a fan, he's checked all the boxes. From the NFL to arena football, the NHL to the KHL, the NBA to the WNBA to college hoops, and even MLB to the KBO.  If it's out there, he's covered it and bet on it as well, as Chris has been an expert bettor in his career.  Before joining Winners and Whiners back in 2015, his work appeared around the internet and in print. He's written books for Ruckus Books about college basketball, the NBA, NFL, MLB, NHL, golf, and the World Cup. If you're looking for the inside track on hitting a winner, do yourself a favor and read what Chris has to say.

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