Prediction, Preview, and Odds
#311 Boise State vs.
#312 San Diego State
Friday, September 22, 2023 at 10:30pm EDT
Written by Adam Rauzino

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The Boise State Broncos (1-2, 2-1 ATS, 2-1 O/U) collide with the San Diego State Aztecs (2-2, 2-2 ATS, 1-3 O/U) in an MWC battle on Friday evening. The Broncos earned their first win of the season after beating North Dakota last week. The Aztecs were dealt a road defeat by Oregon State in their previous clash. Boise State recorded a 35-13 home win against SDSU last season. 

Boise State Collects First Victory

The Boise State Broncos enter this one with confidence. The squad lost the opening two bouts of the season against strong opponents. Boise State was 14-point dogs in an ugly 56-19 road loss against Washington and three-point dogs in a narrow 18-16 home loss against a good UCF squad. The Broncos rebounded with a 42-18 home win against North Dakota last week to cover the 14.5-point spread. The squad now begins conference play where they are considered one of the best. They were voted to finish in 1st in the MWC preseason poll. 

Boise State QB Taylen Green saw a majority of the playing time last year. The sophomore QB struggled in the opening two performances. He connected on less than 50% of his passes against the Huskies and Knights and posted 188 yards last week. Green has 576 passing yards with a 3:4 TD to INT on the year. 

The Broncos have one of the best running backs in the MWC in George Holani. The senior rushed for 1157 yards last year and 51 in the opener. He did not play the last two games due to injury and is questionable. The squad has a deep receiving core. Ashton Jeanty has been stellar, bringing in 236 yards on the season while Eric McAlister leads the squad with 238 receiving yards. The Boise State offense had trouble in the opening two games but this is a proven offense that should excel now that conference play is here. 

The Broncos' defense was a question mark entering the season due to so many graduating players and it has been exploited early. They have especially struggled against the pass but it’s important to note their first two opponents, the Huskies and Knights, have elite QBs. The Broncos' defense was able to hold North Dakota to only 183 total yards last week. The unit ranks 124th against the pass and 68th against the run after three games.

Boise State is averaging 25.7 points, marking them 86th. They are conceding an average of 30.7 points, pegging them 111th.

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San Diego State Dealt Second Consecutive Loss

The San Diego State Aztecs enter the conference opener looking to avoid a third straight loss. They were 2-0 highlighted by a win against Ohio but the schedule increased in difficulty quickly. They dropped a 35-10 road decision to UCLA and were 24-point dogs in a  26-9 road loss against a ranked Oregon State team in week three. The Aztecs were voted to finish 4th in the preseason poll.

Jalen Mayden had one bad game where he chucked three interceptions against UCLA. The senior QB won’t dazzle with big numbers on an offense that likes to run. He registered 256 passing yards against OSU last week and now has 701 passing yards with a 3:4 TD to INT ratio. Mayden has added 193 rushing yards.

Jaylon Armstead rushed for 78 yards in the opener but has been quiet since. The junior RB has 195 rushing yards on a stellar average of 5.1 yards per rush. Mark Redman has taken the team lead in receiving after bringing in 77 yards last week. The senior now has 179 receiving yards. The SDSU offense has yet to score more than 20 points against a FBS opponent but their last two games were against strong defensive squads. 

The Aztecs defense is a work in progress. They had a stifling defense last season but have plenty of new players and it could take a few more games to gel. The group squandered 475 total yards against OSU last week. The group especially struggled against the pass in that one which has been a common theme early this season. They stand 121st against the pass and 86th against the run. 

San Diego State is scoring an average of 18.8 points, ranking them 116th. They are conceding an average of 25.5 points, placing them 86th.

Best Bets for this Game

Full-Game Side Bet

Insiders Status:


The Boise State Broncos were voted to finish in 1st place in the MWC in the preseason poll and these are the type of road games they need to win if they want to be the best. These rivals met last season in a game Boise State won 35-13. Each squad has the same QB and RBs as last year. San Diego State has not looked good. They only beat Idaho State by eight points and the usually strong defense has been exploited after losing several key players. 

Furthermore, Boise State was able to generate a solid 244 passing yards against #10 Washington in the opener. I mentioned that because the Aztecs' secondary is having problems, especially guarding the pass. They are allowing an average of 291 passing yards per game, pegging them 121st in the country. San Diego State often relies on the running game but only managed 70 rushing yards on 2.1 yards per rush last week. Also, Aztecs QB Mayden has chucked four picks in his last two games.

Prediction: Boise State Broncos -6.5

Full-Game Total Pick

Insiders Status:


I expect scoring to be at a premium. These squads only opt for the pass in half their plays, so a lot of running will lead to longer drives. Boise State QB Taylen Green rushed for 105 yards in the win against SDSU last season and he might opt for the run several times again in this year's meeting. Boise State isn't posting big numbers, scoring 19 and 16 points in their two games against FCS opponents.

In addition, the Broncos' defense came up huge against a potent UCF offense in week two, allowing just 18 points, and conceded just 18 points in the victory last week. SDSU has scored 20 or fewer points in three of their four games on the season. The only game they scored more than 20 was against an FCS opponent. The under is 4-1 in the Broncos’ last five road games. 

Prediction: Under 45.5

Written By Adam Rauzino , "Adam Rauzino"

Adam has been a sports fanatic his entire life, closely following hockey, baseball, basketball, and football. He enjoys analyzing various stats, as well as studying Sabermetrics and analytics to take his picks to a whole new level. Adam has a passion for writing about various sports as well as personal finance and being an expert sports bettor. Prior to bringing his talents here to Winners and Whiners, Adam graduated with a diploma in business marketing and business finance. You would do yourself a huge favor by following Adam on a daily basis. 

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