Prediction, Preview, and Odds
#4951 Philadelphia Phillies vs.
#4952 Atlanta Braves
Wednesday, September 20, 2023 at 12:20pm EDT
Written by Chris King

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A pair of NL East rivals close out an early week series on the diamond with a matinee tilt down in Hotlanta. The Philadelphia Phillies are on the road as they finish up a three-game series with the Atlanta Braves Wednesday afternoon. In the opening game of the series Monday night, Philadelphia used their power game to roll to a 7-1 victory and give themselves a shot at a series win in the finale here. Will the Phillies solidify their hold on the top wild card spot or can the majors’ top team find a way to get back on track with a win here? This article was published prior to the conclusion of the middle game of the series at Truist Park Tuesday night.

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Philadelphia Phillies Looking to Earn Road Series Victory

Philadelphia won for the third time in four games as they flexed their collective muscle to down Atlanta in the opening game of this series. The Phillies entered Tuesday 82-68 and stood second in the NL East, 14 games behind the Braves for the top spot. They held the top wild card spot in the National League playoff picture by 3.5 games over the Diamondbacks. Trea Turner had two of the seven hits for the Phillies in the game. Bryce Harper (his 18th), Kyle Schwarber (his 45th), Nick Castellanos (his 25th), J.T. Realmuto (his 19th) and Johan Rojas (his second) each homered in the win for Philadelphia. Zack Wheeler (12-6) earned the win as he threw six innings, allowing one run on three hits with two walks and five strikeouts before handing things off to the bullpen.

Aaron Nola is on the mound for the Phillies as he logs his 31st start of the year in this one. He comes in 12-9 with a 4.62 ERA, a 1.177 WHIP, 45 walks and 186 strikeouts over 181 innings of work on the year while allowing a career-high 31 homers. Nola didn’t factor in the decision in his last start, which came against the Cardinals on the road Friday. He threw 4.2 innings, allowing three runs (two earned) on seven hits with one walk and one strikeout in a game the Phillies went on to win 5-4. In his last three starts, Nola is 0-1 with an 8.56 ERA, a 1.90 WHIP, four walks and 12 strikeouts over 13.2 innings of work. Nola makes his 33rd career start against the Braves in this contest. He is 15-10 with a 3.41 ERA, a 1.141 WHIP, 57 walks and 195 strikeouts over 200.2 innings of work in those outings. Nola is 3-7 with a 4.46 ERA, a 1.226 WHIP, 21 walks and 69 strikeouts over 76.2 innings of action in 13 career starts at Truist Park.

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Atlanta Braves Trying to Get Back in Win Column

Atlanta suffered their fourth straight loss as they were victimized by the power game of the Phillies in the opening game of this set. The Braves entered Tuesday 96-54 and have clinched the NL East crown as they lead by 14 games with 12 games to play. They own a 3.5-game lead over the Dodgers for the top record in the National League. On Monday, Atlanta finished with only four hits with no player recording more than one. Ozzie Albies hit his 31st homer of the season in the opening inning but that was it for the Braves offense on the night. Kyle Wright (0-3) took the loss on the mound as he threw four innings, allowing four runs on five hits with four walks and five strikeouts.

Bryce Elder is on the bump for the Braves as he logs his 30th start of the year in this contest. He enters this game 12-4 with a 3.50 ERA, a 1.219 WHIP, 54 walks and 126 strikeouts over 167.1 innings of work on the year. Elder didn’t factor in the decision in his last start, which came Friday on the road against the Marlins. He threw five innings, allowing four runs on nine hits with no walks and six strikeouts in a game the Braves went on to lose 9-6. In his last three starts, Elder is 1-0 with a 3.50 ERA, a 1.28 WHIP, five walks and 19 strikeouts over 18 innings of work. Elder makes his second career start against the Phillies in this contest. He has no record, a 0.00 ERA, a 0.714 WHIP, two walks and six strikeouts over seven innings of action in a game the Braves went on to win 5-1 in 10 innings. Elder is 8-2 with a 2.88 ERA, a 1.134 WHIP, 35 walks and 91 strikeouts over 109.1 innings in 19 career starts at Truist Park.

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Full-Game Side Bet

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This is one of those situations where the Braves are on cruise control as they know they can’t finish any lower than #2 in the National League. That gives Brian Snitker the opportunity to give some of his stars a breather here and there while also easing the workload of his starting pitchers. The Braves have several key arms coming off the IL who will need work to get up to speed ahead of the postseason as well. While the Phillies are holding the top wild card spot in the National League entering Tuesday, the fact remains that they want to finish the season strong. Nola has been prone to the long ball but he has had success against the Braves in his career. Granted, most of that success has come at Citizens Bank Park but with the Braves intent on staying healthy and rested for the postseason push, give the slight edge to the Phillies in this one.

Prediction: Philadelphia Phillies +124

Full-Game Total Pick

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Philadelphia went into Tuesday night’s action having seen the under post a 72-67-11 mark in their 150 games this year. The Phillies are 8th in the majors by averaging 4.91 runs per game though that drops to 4.64 runs per game on the road. Philadelphia has an average of 9.30 runs per game this season and that number slips to 9.25 runs per game on the road. Atlanta entered Tuesday having seen the over post a 83-65-2 mark in their 150 games on the year. The Braves are 1st in the majors in runs per game with 5.77 runs per contest though that number climbs to an average of 5.82 runs per game at home this season. Atlanta’s average total on the year is 10.12 runs per contest, a number that climbs to 10.33 runs per contest as the home team this season. We saw eight runs on the board in the opening game of the series and based on the pitching, we shouldn’t expect a ton more here, especially on getaway day. Lean toward the under in this contest.

Prediction: Under 9.5

Written By Chris King , "Chris King"

Chris King has been immersed in the world of professional and collegiate sports for more than three decades. Whether it's playing pickup games or being involved in organized sports to being a fan, he's checked all the boxes. From the NFL to arena football, the NHL to the KHL, the NBA to the WNBA to college hoops, and even MLB to the KBO.  If it's out there, he's covered it and bet on it as well, as Chris has been an expert bettor in his career.  Before joining Winners and Whiners back in 2015, his work appeared around the internet and in print. He's written books for Ruckus Books about college basketball, the NBA, NFL, MLB, NHL, golf, and the World Cup. If you're looking for the inside track on hitting a winner, do yourself a favor and read what Chris has to say.

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