Prediction, Preview, and Odds
#4967 Baltimore Orioles vs.
#4968 Houston Astros
Wednesday, September 20, 2023 at 2:10pm EDT
Written by Michael Briggs

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The Baltimore Orioles and Houston Astros will play on Wednesday at Minute Maid Park. First pitch is at 1:10 p.m. CT.

Baltimore (93-56 SU and 90-59 RL) is starting right-hander Kyle Bradish. The 27-year-old is 11-7 with a 3.12 ERA and a 1.09 WHIP in his 27 outings.

Houston (84-66 SU and 76-74 RL) is countering with righty Cristian Javier. The 26-year-old is 9-4 with a 4.74 ERA and a 1.29 WHIP in 28 starts this season.

*Article published before the conclusion of Tuesday's game.

Key Injuries

Baltimore: 1B Ryan Mountcastle is out indefinitely with a shoulder injury.

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Baltimore is eyeing its first AL East crown since 2014

Baltimore split its last series with Tampa Bay, helping it maintain a lead in the AL East. Can it hold on for the final stretch of the regular season?

The Orioles average 5.11 runs (6th) and hit .258 (7th) with a .751 OPS (8th). They've launched 176 homers (16th) and stolen 101 bases (17th) in 2023. The B-More pitching staff has compiled a 4.04 ERA (12th) and a 1.26 WHIP (11th) with 63 quality starts (9th).

Bradish will take the hill for the visitors in Wednesday afternoon's series finale. In his last start, he suffered a loss, surrendering four runs and seven hits in seven frames against Tampa Bay. He had held his previous seven opponents to three or fewer runs. Bradish hasn't faced Houston in 2023.

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Can H-Town win its sixth AL West crown in the last seven seasons?

Houston holds a narrow 1.5-game lead over Seattle and Texas heading into play on Tuesday. It's going to take everything it has to hold off both clubs for the AL West division crown.

The Astros score 5.18 runs per game (5th) and hit .260 (4th) with a .769 OPS (6th). They've launched 208 dingers (7th) and stolen 102 bases (16th) this year. The H-Town pitching staff has compiled a 3.99 ERA (9th) and a 1.29 WHIP (17th) with 66 quality starts (6th).

Javier will toe the rubber for the home team in Wednesday's matinee game. In his last start, the fourth-year pro gave up three runs (two earned) and five hits in a five-inning loss to Kansas City. He is 5-2 with a 3.86 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP in 12 outings this season. Javier earned a victory over Baltimore on August 9, holding the O's to two runs and four hits in five innings.

Best Bets for this Game

Full-Game Side Bet

Insiders Status:


Betting Trends: Baltimore owns the best road record (49-26 SU) in MLB and a 70-36 SU record against American League competition (66%).

I'm betting on the Orioles to win straight-up behind a quality start from Bradish. He gives the O's a pitching advantage over Javier, who has surrendered a homer in nine straight starts and 13 of his last 14. Bradish didn't have his best stuff in his most recent start, but still gave Baltimore seven innings. He's allowed three or fewer runs in 23 of 27 starts, while Javier has allowed four or more runs in eight outings, including three of his last six.

The O's slash .261 BA/.326 OBP/.434 SLG/.760 OPS on the road. They're hitting .281/.342/.455/.797 in September after a hot month at the dish in August (5.4 runs/game). Houston has been less consistent, especially recently. Losing two of three to both Oakland and Kansas City was not a good look. I think it falls short again at home (38-38 SU this season) on Wednesday afternoon.

Prediction: Orioles ML

Full-Game Total Pick

Insiders Status:


Betting Trends: The over is 42-33-1 in Houston home games and 43-27-5 in Orioles road games this year.

Both clubs are having fine months at the dish, as Baltimore is scoring 6.0 runs per game, and Houston is scoring 6.1 runs per game. They were also productive at the plate last month, averaging 5.4 runs and 6.0 runs, respectively. Bradish is coming off his rockiest outing since the end of July and hasn't faced this Astros lineup yet this year — will he bounce back, or is he showing fatigue (career-high 152.2 IP)?

Javier held the Orioles to two runs earlier this season, but it took him 105 pitches to get through five innings with three walks. He's walked at least three batters in five of his previous eight starts (13 total in his last five). Baltimore can and will take advantage of those opportunities, especially considering the 'Stros starter is prone to the long ball (25 HR allowed in 28 appearances).

Bet on the over!

Prediction: Over

Written By Michael Briggs , "Michael Briggs"

Mike Briggs is a passionate sports fan and writer, earning his B.A. in Journalism. In 2020, he moved across the country from New Jersey to San Diego to satisfy his lifelong obsession of living near an MLB stadium. As a proud MSU basketball supporter, Mike believes he's learned a lot watching coach Tom Izzo lead the Spartans to Big Ten titles and Final Fours regularly. He's also well-read on the NBA, having a subscription to SLAM magazine, the famed "basketball bible," since he was a teenager. Mike spends his free time strategizing futures bets and researching opportunities to make a few bucks on tonight's game. You can follow Mike on Twitter @BriggsWrites for sports betting, DFS, and stock trading tips.

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